The tendency to ignore all guidelines promulgated to contain the spread of Covid-19 mutated strains may not augur well for the overall welfare of society. Moreover, any complacency in adhering to the set norms may only worsen the predicament leading to difficult situations to handle, fear Dr SL Hoti, currently ICMR-Emeritus Scientist at ICMR-Vector Research Centre, Puducherry.
As of now, the number of positive cases looks to dropping hinting at the flattening of the curve. But unless 70-80 per cent of the population is vaccinated and the country boasts of having developed herd immunity, the general public by and large continue to remain susceptible. Hence, it's advisable that people continue to adhere to the norms of wearing a mask, sanitizing apart from maintaining social distance, he cautions.
A former Director-in-Charge Scientist G of ICMR-National Institute of Traditional Medicine(NITM)[Formerly RMRC], Belagavi, Dr SL Hoti is categorical when it comes to the present vaccine predicament: We are having only two companies, SERUM Institute and the Bharat Biotech to produce the vaccines. In a country with a population of 136 crores and two doses of vaccination means a requirement of 272 crores. This can only be accomplished in a gradual manner...
...The unprecedented pandemic plight coupled with the production limitations has led to such an adverse condition. Last year, once the first wave subsided and vaccine production began in right earnest, so was also the beginning of the misinformation campaign! But once the second wave pounced with its massive toll, suddenly there's been a scramble for the vaccine. All those who were publicly pronouncing against are now making a beeline to have the vaccine! he recalls.
Talking in length about the misinformation campaign and canards let loose against the Indian Companies manufacturing the two vaccines, Dr SL Hoti takes stock of the ground situation: There's no doubt about the paradox in demand and supply condition. But in a hurry to bog down the government efforts for whatsoever reasons, one should not stoop to the extent of undermining the efforts meant to meet the Herculean task...
...Both the Indian vaccines have hit the market only after due laboratory and clinical tests. All efficacy, ethicacy measures mandated have been stringently followed. Taking the demand and supply situation into consideration, the government has given clearance for the import of Sputnik vaccines from Russia. Three private companies have been entrusted with the job of manufacturing Sputnik vaccines within the country. These companies may most likely start supplying by the year-end, he explains.
About criticism on the issue of Indian companies exporting vaccines to several countries when the host country itself is struggling to cater to the needs, he says: There are some international obligations we need to reciprocate. We have imported raw materials to manufacture vaccines from the US and other countries. There are many poor countries that can afford to neither produce nor import. It's the only responsibility of goodwill gesture with humanitarian considerations. Different proportions of vaccines have been handed over to around 71 countries.
On many European Union countries not giving credence to Indian vaccines, Dr SL Hoti asserts: Covishield vaccines are being accepted elsewhere also. However, the process to seek WHO approval for Covaxin is underway. The government of India is following up with WHO in this aspect.
Apart from the fiasco, several doubts have been raised about the effectiveness of the vaccines presently injected in the country. These vaccines were released after the first wave. But now we are challenged with multiple strains of the Covid-19 mutated virus. Will these vaccines be able to gear up to meet the challenges posed by the newfound strains?
Dr SL Hoti replies: It has been found that Three variants of the mutated Covid-19 virus from the UK, Brazil and South Africa have infected countrymen in the second wave. A study is already being carried out while there are published papers claiming the available vaccines being active against the newfound variants...
...But for the country to become safe the only option is to develop herd immunity from natural infection. If 70-80 per cent of the population get the doses, we can feel rest assured. At the same time 60-70 per cent vaccination may not be enough as the mortality rate could be high, he fears.
At the same time, people with lower immunity levels are equally susceptible and may get into complications. There are no shortcuts to end the pandemic nor ready-made formulae to declare of having overcome it. People should continue to observe the norms in their own interest. But not doing so is bound to prove dangerous, he reiterates.
Most of the state governments are pursuing unlock measures even though the cases haven't dipped completely. On such wisdom, Dr SL Hoti claims: The economic activities have become a casualty as a result of lockdown stipulations. Daily wage earners are the worst affected while it is a big revenue loss to the businessmen and the government. But, if the infection rate comes down to less than five per cent, then there is nothing wrong with undertaking the unlocking exercise.
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| Dr SL Hoti |
The second Wave Highly Transmissible: Unlike the first wave, the second one has proved to be disastrous in fatalities. While the whole of rural areas remained unaffected during the first wave, now the hitherto safe havens have become dangerous places to dwell with a large number of deaths never before. Dr SL Hoti says: The second wave is highly transmissible. Unlike the previous time, in the second wave, if one person in a family developed symptoms it quickly spread to the remaining family members...
...As a result of lockdown, most of those residing in urban centres went to their native villages. Since they also carried infection with them, the virus spread fast taking its toll in the absence of quarantine centres and health facilities. Unfortunately, if one or two cases were found in a house, the family members instead of getting treated didn't venture out for treatment. The social stigma attached to the virus aggravated the situation making the lives of rural folks miserable. It's really a sad situation. Unless the villagers opt-out to go to the urban areas to get checked and treated, no one knows what could be the outcome, he wonders.
Precautionary Measures for Third Wave Need of the Hour: It is now being estimated that the third wave may bounce back in October. The government is already taking precautionary measures. They should also provide facilities and create the necessary infrastructure, signed off Dr SL Hoti.
-Manohar Yadavatti
Krishna Itnal. Pune. The anticipation of another attack in October 21,appears to be true.Let us not be complacent by saying the warning as prediction.Your pointing out the precarious woes of daily wage earners is very much true. Each has to contribute his mite regularly. Congratulations, this is a timely article of awareness .
ReplyDeleteOnly thing sensible all the people must do is control their behavior and stay home, mask, social distancing and eat fresh for just 12 days for virus to end its life cycle. Dr Hoti has aptly explained the consequences of complacency. If a third wave in case is formed, it is a good warning informed well in advance.
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