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Karnataka bye-elections: Political fate of multiple leaders and parties' at stake?​

The forthcoming bye-elections to 15 Assembly constituencies in the state on 05 December are not just like any other bye-elections in nature but a forced one upon the people of the state to ensure that the saffron party romps back to power enabling B S Yediyurappa to become a Chief Minister for the fourth time.The two objectives of the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) assuming power and the party's mass leader occupying the hot seat are being accomplished. But these crucial bye-elections have now turned out to be an acid test of political fate for multiple leaders including the incumbent chief minister and three other former chief ministers and an Ex Prime Minister as well.

B S Yediyurappa soon after taking the oath of office and secrecy as CM for the fourth time heaved a sigh of relief for making his dream come true. However, the path later on continues to be a stumbling block for him at each and every step so far.

He himself admitted during the 100 days in office celebration: Every single day during this period has been like walking on the tight rope...It has been a challenge all along including nature's fury in the form of incessant rains and floodwaters' havoc due to devastating impact and added by political turbulence.

The resignations of 14 Indian National Congress(INC) and three Janata Dal-Secular(JD-S) MLAs' leading to their disqualification from the house and the apex court granting them a new lease of political life by permitting them to contest was perturbed as a moral victory to B S Yediyurappa and the ruling BJP. But the trouble started as soon as the defectors joined the party and all but for two of them were also parted with the party tickets to contest the bye-elections.The loyalist party leaders and cadres found it hard to relish and it became difficult for them to imagine campaigning for the new party candidates against whom they had been waging a political battle all along so far.

R Shankar, former Ranebennur Independent candidate was placated with an assurance of getting him elected to the upper house and induction to the ministry later. R Roshan Baig, former Congress minister and eight times MLA wasn't not all that lucky.

Thanks to his name being tainted with the Rs multi thousand crores IMA scam, R Roshan Baig wasn't even admitted to the ruling party forget being given a party ticket to contest from Shivajinagar, his political turf.As rival BJP candidates have contested the election of Munirathna (Rajarajeshwarinagar constituency in the city) and Pratapgouda Patil (Maski in Raichuru district) bye-elections are not being held in these constituencies.

Thanks to the 17 MLAs' resignations paving way for a BJP government, now winning in at least eight of the 15 constituencies is of utmost importance if at all the same party has to remain at the helm of affairs.

In the absence of that victory tally, the ruling BJP will again be reduced to a minority mandating support from the JD-S to continue in power. There are already rumours within the ruling party that B S Yediyurappa will be soon packed off with a gubernatorial position irrespective of the party position after the bye-poll election results.

Siddaramaiah, former chief minister and Congress Legislature Party (CLP) leader is in no better position. He is undergoing a piquant plight by ruffling feathers with old hags who have begun to sharpen their cudgels in public to chop off the former politically.

The old time loyalist war horses in the form of Mallikarjun Kharge, K H Muniyappa, B K Hariprasad, H K Patil among many a other are just waiting for an opportunity to hammer the newcomer to the party who occupied the plum position of chief minister for a whole full five years term at the cost of old timers'. Most of the 14 Congress MLAs' who tendered resignations to their positions had claimed Siddaramaiah as their leader. MTB Nagaraj, former Congress minister had even declared: If you break open my heart you will find Siddaramaiah there! Now the same MTB Nagaraj is a BJP candidate in Hoskote constituency of Bengaluru Rural district. Siddaramaiah himself has been wondering in public: All those who resigned have been pointing blaming fingers at me, Congressmen are accusing me ...where do I need to go then?

The state Congress bigwigs against the former chief minister are just keeping their fingers crossed waiting to strip him off the CLP leader's position in the event of a dismal result in the ensuing bye-polls.

HD Kumaraswamy, immediate past chief minister and his dad H D Devegowda, former chief minister and former prime minister are very clear in their next political move. Both of them have been repeatedly reiterating in public that they will ensure that the present BJP government will not fall on the pretext of failing to win the desired number of seats in the bye-polls.The indication is crystal clear to support the BJP government. But it is not going to happen without the hard bargaining of H D Devegowda and H D Kumarasway, whose prowess for grabbing power hook or crook is well-known, both at the state and centre!

Siddaramaiah's childish utterances in public of wishing to become the CM again looks to be taken too seriously by the father and son duo who are finding the claim too sour to relish. So they are hell bent to ensure that the BJP bandwagon keeps continuing not withstanding even a remote chance for the old JD-S guy turned Congressman to occupy the prime position.

One of the hopeless predicament for the forthcoming bye-elections is such that both the Congress and JD-S leaders are swearing to defeat all those leaders who ditched them rather than their own party candidates making it to the victory tables!

To sum up, by and large it is like a do or die situation for all the three contenders', B S Yediyurappa, Siddaramaiah, H D Kumaraswamy and H D Devegowda. At least eight people returning on the ruling party tickets will prove to be morale booster for the oldest chief minister of the BJP. If not the state will again be plunged into another political turmoil and in case not contained immediately may lead to snap polls as well!

-Manohar Yadavatti

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