BJP can bet only in Karnataka in the whole of South to bag some seats

BJP can bet only in Karnataka in the whole of South to bag some seats

    The whole of South India gives altogether a diversely different picture in comparison to the overall political scenario prevailing in North India and elsewhere. In a way but for Karnataka almost all other states by and large hint at a situation giving an indication in favor to the local regional parties rather than the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party at the Center. So for all practical purposes if at all the BJP has to rely upon for seats in the South it will only be from Karnataka. Thanks to the hitherto sworn enemies Janata Dal Secular-Indian National Congress joining hands to form a coalition government even the prospects of the saffron party are not that rosy as they used to appear earlier.

image source jagran.com

Telangana for TRS: Any numbers of freebies to the electorate have enabled the Telangana Rashtra Samithi President and state Chief Minister continuously for the second time, Kalvakuntla Chandrasekhar Rao to romp back with a thumping majority in the recently held Assembly elections.
Although a few months have passed since then the euphoria for the ruling TRS party continue to remain in the same stride while the remaining opposition parties like the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) headed by YS Jaganmohan Reddy, son of YS Rajasekhar Reddy, Telugu Desam and Congress parties have lost their relevance in the real terms.

K Chandrasekhar Rao, YS Jaganmohan Reddy and N Chandrababu Naidu are all originally Congressmen who share the same characteristic of ditching the parent Congress party and floating their own personal, regional outfits to fulfill their political aspirations and all of them have thrived in their own way again at the cost of Congress party.
The Indian National Congress party by deciding to split the unified Andhra Pradesh into two separate states has given a fatal blow to its very existence in both of the two new states.SR Ramanujan, former Director of Eenadu Television Network opines: KCR party will emerge victorious in 16 Lok Sabha seats leaving one to the Asaduddin Owaisi led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen party and eventually paving way for the rout of Congress party.

Andhra Pradesh: While the scene in the adjoining state is completely the reverse for the ruling Telugu Desam party and is said to be headed for a worst ever electoral performance in the ensuing Parliamentary polls.

Nara Chandrababu Naidu, currently the first Chief Minister of the newly carved state has a long history of being a professional traitor to his own men and party. To begin with he unseated Nandamuri Tarak Ramarao(NTR),his own father in law and then Chief Minister of unified Andhra Pradesh to become CM.

Recently he parted ways with the Bharatiya Janata Party with which Telugu Desam(TDP) had been a traditional partner for decades and ended up in joining hands with the Congress. In fact Telugu Desam party was floated by the late NTR to reestablish the self esteem of Telugu speaking people and revolt against the then Congress regime which according to NTR had treated the state people as slaves.
He also has the dubious distinction of ditching the Kapu community belonging to film star turned maverick politician Pavan Kalyan by not extending reservation status as promised before the previous Assembly elections.

By joining hands with the Congress, N Chandrababu Naidu is said to be under utter loss of losing both the traditional TDP vote base nor those votes from the sympathizers of the Congress party as supporters of both these parties have been behaving like the snake and mongoose all along so far.
S Ramdas, senior journalist jovially remarks: Now Chandrababu Naidu is no more interested in remaining a chief minister of AP as he is nursing dreams of becoming a prime minister!
However political observers also argue that much depends upon the probability of Pavan Kalyan in the event of deciding to go with Chandrababu Naidu. It’s felt in the political circles that in case of such a sudden development the political tables might turn in favor of Telugu Desam party.
As of now Jaganmohan Reddy of the YSRCP is being projected to be an alternative and gainer in the polls. The Bharatiya Janata Party has an history of winning a handful of seats only by having an alliance with the Telugu Desam party.

Kerala: Again the most literate state of the country also appears to be in no mood to return BJP representatives to the Parliament in spite of never ending turmoil over political killings and the controversy that was unleashed following the entry of women devotees to Sabrimala following the judgment of the apex court.

The coastal state by and large alternately has either the Congress led United Democratic Front (UDF) or Left Democratic Front (LDF) governments since decades and the phenomenon continues to remain in spite of both these groups continue to wane away from the political sphere of the country.
As of now it’s felt that the opposition UDF is set to register a win in 17 constituencies while the LDF bagging the remaining three Lok Sabha constituencies. The argument for such an analysis according to S Ramdas is: Anyway left parties continue to support the Congress in Parliament for government formation as has been proved so far. So why elect Comrades who will eventually end up in supporting Congress rather than electing the UDF candidates directly.
He also argues: It’s most likely that the ruling LDF will crop up some dummy candidates where it wants the UDF nominees to win and vice versa. Thiruvananthapuram is one constituency where the Bharatiya Janata Party can give the best of try just like last time where in all likelihood LDF candidate will be for namesake.

Kasargod with sizeable presence of Kannada speaking people, Palakkad and Pathanamthitta are the other remaining three constituencies wherein the Bharatiya Janata Party candidates are set to increase their vote share but whether the increase of the same will be enough to trounce the rival contenders is a query doubtful to have satisfactory answer.
Though the tiny state has a conflux of people belonging to all the three major religions spread across the entire region Ponnani and Mallappuram are two constituencies having Muslim majority.
It is roughly estimated that the ratio of Christians and Muslims is to the proportion of 40:40 while that of the Hindus is said to be 20 percent. Interestingly irrespective of such population combination the Ernakulum (Cochin) MP happens to be from the Latin Catholic community since 30 years while that of Kottayam is from the Roman Catholic community, explains Ramdas.

Tamil Nadu: The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(AIADMK) is now divided into three splinter groups officially while the main opposition party Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam remains intact in spite of MK Alagiri, elder son of M Karunanidhi, DMK patriarch going to public against the interests of the party.
It is for the first time in history that the Parliamentary polls are happening in the absence of tall political personalities Jayaram Jayalalithaa and Muthuvel Karunanidhi who fought bitterly against one another during their lifetime.

In that way it’s also a moment for crowning MK Stalin to the political throne of Tamil Nadu politics. It may be recalled here that he was declared as the political heir by none other than M Karunanidhi himself.
Siva Parameswaran, senior journalist based out of Chennai exclaims: DMK will bag all the 40 seats (including the lone constituency in Union Territory of Puducherry) in Tamil Nadu.
Of course there are multiple reasons for such a rosy situation to the DMK. The AIADMK is literally a divided house with all the three groups claiming the legacy of the late Selvi Jayalalithaa but the electorate looks to be thinking otherwise.

Thanks to anti incumbency factors coupled by various scams none of the splinter groups of the AIADMK are expected to win any seat. Such type of result is also not new to the state as the same AIADMK had bagged all the 39 seats during the hay days of Jayalalithaa. The only change would be the reversal of the verdict in favor of the DMK.

Multi talented actor Kamal Hasaan has also entered the electoral fray and is projected not to win any of the seats. Vijayakant, another popular actor who was dreaming of becoming the chief minister had to remain content of emerging as leader of the opposition.

His Desiya Murpokku Kazhagam(DMDK) after failing to have a pact with the DMK for waking up at the last minute was left with no other option rather than tying up with the AIADMK-BJP combine.
Rajanikanth in spite of boasting fan following across the state continues to stumble in taking a political stance publicly. In the prevailing circumstances even if he takes a decision, onlookers fear that such resolve will not help to turn the winning tables in favor of BJP.

Apart from the two main Dravidian parties there are any number of them belonging to each and every caste and sub caste possible and most them existing only at the time of elections and remaining on letter heads otherwise.


Karnataka: For the first time the Bharatiya Janata Party will be taking the combined Janata Dal Secular-Indian National Congress combine head on making the battle fierce like never before. Just like in some of the other states BJP had been a beneficiary of multi corner contests in the state so far. But it looks the ploy is of no better use in the given situation.

The Bharatiya Janata Party had won 19 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections and now a few surveys done some time back hint the number coming down to 14 letting the remaining to the JDS-INC combine.

There have been enough rumblings within the coalition partners as HD Devegowda known for his hard bargaining stance is also eyeing on the constituencies held by the Congress MPs. Congressmen fear by parting them is also like wishing away the survival of the party in those districts.
The JDS makes no sense in the whole of North Karnataka region for Lok Sabha polls but yet is making a big noise to snatch some of them hook or crook. Even in old Mysuru area also known as a strong Vokkaliga belt JDS is bargaining for Chikkaballapur and Tumakuru constituencies and it may not be a big surprise if the Congress yields to that extra pound of flesh at its own cost.
By and large both the Mumbai and Hyderabad Karnataka regions are likely to go with the BJP as most of the constituencies have continued to remain strong bastion of the saffron party.
-Manohar Yadavatti

 blog handled by Infinity Techsyst Dharwad,Karnataka,India